Summary
Vice President JD Vance's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election have decreased, according to prediction and betting markets. His odds have dropped below other contenders like Governor Gavin Newsom. This change follows geopolitical events and shifting voter opinions.
Key Facts
- JD Vance's odds for the 2028 presidential race have dropped to 18% on Polymarket.
- Vance's odds fell from 22.4% in February when a conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran began.
- Gavin Newsom's odds are close to Vance's at 17%.
- Prediction market Kalshi also shows Vance's odds near an all-time low of 19.2%.
- Traditional betting markets now favor Newsom over Vance, with Vance's odds slipping to 4/1.
- Vance remains the favorite for the Republican nomination, ahead of Marco Rubio.
- Democrats are favored to win the presidency in 2028, according to Star Sports' odds.
