Summary
Climate scientists expect an El Niño event to change weather patterns globally later this year, with potential effects extending into 2026 and 2027. This could lead to higher global temperatures and potentially increased cold weather in the UK during winter. The transition from the cool La Niña phase to the warmer El Niño phase is forecasted to happen in mid-2026.
Key Facts
- El Niño is a climate pattern that involves warming of the central Pacific Ocean.
- Scientists expect El Niño could raise global temperatures by about 0.2°C in 2026 and 2027.
- El Niño might increase the chances of colder winter weather in the UK.
- Currently, the world is transitioning from a cool phase called La Niña to neutral conditions.
- The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 62% chance that El Niño will start between June and August 2026.
- A strong El Niño, also known as a Super El Niño, could develop, with a one in three chance of this happening by the end of this year.
- Previous strong El Niño events have led to increased global temperatures and changes in weather patterns worldwide.
- Australia and other West Pacific countries may experience drier conditions, while Peru and Ecuador might see more rain.
