Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says
Summary
An analysis warns that up to 250,000 people in the UK could lose their jobs by mid-2027 as the country faces the risk of a recession due to the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran. Rising energy prices and economic uncertainty are causing UK businesses to reduce spending and hiring, slowing down growth.Key Facts
- Up to 250,000 job losses in the UK are expected by mid-2027.
- The UK economy may flatline in Q2 and Q3 of this year, risking a recession (two quarters of decline).
- Growth is expected to slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.7% this year.
- Inflation could rise to almost 4% by late 2026, double the Bank of England’s target.
- Rising oil and gas prices are caused by Iran’s actions in the Middle East, including closing the Strait of Hormuz.
- UK business leaders, especially CFOs, are reducing spending and preparing for risks like inflation, energy costs, and cyber-attacks.
- The International Monetary Fund lowered its UK growth forecast to 0.8% for 2026.
- The Bank of England is expected to avoid quick interest rate increases despite inflation pressures.
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