How 'Super' El Niño Could Affect Weather This Summer
Summary
Forecasters predict a 61 percent chance that El Niño, a warming of Pacific Ocean waters, will develop between May and July and could last until late 2026. This event may cause changes in weather patterns, including more rain in the U.S. Midwest, fewer hurricanes in the western Atlantic, and droughts and heat waves in several global regions.Key Facts
- El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that affects global weather and often follows its cooler counterpart, La Niña.
- There is a 61 percent chance El Niño will start soon and may continue through 2026.
- A rare "super" El Niño means ocean temperatures 2 degrees Celsius above average for several months; this could be the strongest since 2023-2024.
- In the U.S., El Niño tends to bring more summer rain to the Midwest and West, but drier weather from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast.
- The Atlantic hurricane season may have fewer storms due to El Niño, while the eastern and central Pacific may see more activity.
- Other global effects could include drought in parts of India, Africa, Australia, and the Americas, and more heat waves across many regions.
- Forecasts have uncertainty during spring, but they usually become clearer by late May or June.
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