Democrats' Odds of Winning California Governor Race As New Candidate Exits
Summary
Democratic candidate Betty Yee has stopped her campaign for California governor, narrowing a crowded primary field. Betting markets currently show Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra leading the race, but Democrats worry that having too many candidates could let Republicans advance to the general election despite California’s Democratic majority.Key Facts
- Betty Yee, a Democrat and former state controller, ended her run for California governor this week.
- Other Democrats, including Eric Swalwell, have also left the race recently.
- California’s top-two primary system means only the two candidates with the most votes move on, regardless of party.
- Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one in California.
- Betting markets show Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra tied as the frontrunners, each with about a 36-41% chance to win.
- Other candidates like Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, and Republican Steve Hilton have smaller chances.
- California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks warned that too many Democratic candidates risk splitting the vote, which could hurt their chances in the general election.
- Prediction markets use real-money trading to estimate election outcomes but do not fully reflect voter turnout or late opinion changes.
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