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California Governor Race Odds Tracker: Tom Steyer's Chances of Success Rise

California Governor Race Odds Tracker: Tom Steyer's Chances of Success Rise

Summary

Tom Steyer’s chances of winning the California governor race have improved recently, partly because former candidate Eric Swalwell left the race after sexual assault allegations. California uses a jungle primary where all candidates run together, and the top two move to the general election.

Key Facts

  • Tom Steyer’s odds to win are currently 41%, up from 36% but down from a peak of 68% in mid-April.
  • Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced against him; he denies the claims.
  • California’s governor race includes candidates from both parties competing in a single primary, with the top two advancing to the final election.
  • Other leading candidates include Democrats Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, Xavier Becerra, and Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.
  • A recent poll showed Steyer at 14% support before Swalwell quit the race.
  • Steyer is spending more on ads than other candidates and promotes taxing billionaires and polluters.
  • Betty Yee suspended her campaign due to lack of fundraising support.
  • California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003-2011) and usually votes strongly Democratic.
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