Goldman raises oil price forecasts as Iran war deadlock continues; Shell buying Canada’s ARC in $13.6bn deal – business live
Summary
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for oil prices due to ongoing disruptions in Middle East oil production. It now expects Brent crude to reach about $90 per barrel in late 2024, higher than its previous estimate of $80, citing lower output from the Persian Gulf.Key Facts
- Goldman Sachs increased its Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel for the last quarter of 2024, up from $80.
- US crude is expected to average $83 per barrel in October-December, up from an earlier forecast of $75.
- The forecast change is due to a deadlock in the Middle East that has reduced Persian Gulf oil production by 14.5 million barrels per day.
- Global oil inventories have seen a record drop of 11 to 12 million barrels per day because of this supply disruption.
- Goldman expects global oil demand to fall in 2026 because higher prices will reduce usage.
- They outlined three future price scenarios based on how quickly Persian Gulf exports return and whether production capacity is permanently damaged: adverse (over $100), severely adverse (nearly $120), and benign (under $80).
- Separately, Shell announced it is buying Canada's ARC Resources for $13.6 billion in a major oil deal.
- Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route, remains low due to the conflict.
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