Deaths projected to outnumber births in UK every year from 2026
Summary
The UK’s population is expected to grow more slowly than before, with deaths outnumbering births every year from 2026. Population growth will mainly come from people moving into the UK, but the total population is predicted to peak around the 2050s and then start to decline.Key Facts
- From 2024 to 2034, the UK population is projected to increase by 1.7 million, reaching 71 million.
- Deaths are expected to exceed births annually starting in 2026.
- The population growth forecast is lower than previous estimates due to fewer people moving to the UK and lower birth rates.
- Net migration is the main factor causing population growth in the coming decades.
- Net migration fell sharply from 649,000 (year to June 2024) to 204,000 (year to June 2025).
- Population peaks occur at different times in UK countries: England in 2056, Wales in 2035, Scotland in 2033, and Northern Ireland in 2031.
- The number of people aged 65 and older will grow, making up 20% of the population by 2034 and 22% by 2054.
- Children under 16 will become a smaller part of the population, dropping from 18.2% to 14.5% by 2054.
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