Supreme Court supercharges the death of competitive districts
Summary
The Supreme Court ruled that states can use partisan reasons when drawing voting districts, which will likely reduce the number of competitive House races in the 2026 elections. This means primary elections, where only party members vote, will become more important than general elections in deciding winners.Key Facts
- The Supreme Court said the Voting Rights Act does not stop states from drawing districts to benefit a political party.
- Currently, only 16 out of 435 House races are considered highly competitive ("Toss Up").
- In past elections, there were many more competitive districts: 22 toss-ups in 2024 and 36 in 2022.
- Most of the 435 House seats are expected to be decided before the midterms, with little chance of change.
- Fewer competitive general elections mean party primaries become the main battleground, often favoring more extreme candidates.
- Well-funded interest groups may have more influence in these primaries.
- Less competition can lead to lower voter turnout and weaker accountability for elected officials.
- Some groups want to change the primary system to increase voter participation and competition.
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