The tipping point: what happens when deaths outnumber births?
Summary
Many developed countries are now experiencing more deaths than births. This is because people are living longer, and fewer children are being born, which affects populations, economies, and public services.Key Facts
- In 2024, 21 of 27 European Union countries had more deaths than births.
- Countries across Asia and the Americas, like Japan and South Korea, also show this trend.
- In the UK, deaths are expected to outnumber births every year starting in 2026.
- The UK’s population will still grow for a while but may peak around 2054 before declining.
- A fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman is needed to keep a population stable; the UK rate is about 1.44.
- Fewer children mean fewer students, causing some schools and child-related businesses to close or struggle.
- An aging population leads to more spending on pensions, health, and social care, putting pressure on younger workers.
- Older populations tend to invest more cautiously, which can slow economic growth.
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