Special interests are moving into prediction markets, and it’s a problem
Summary
Special interest groups are starting to influence prediction markets by placing bets that can change market prices. These price changes are seen by political campaigns and media as signs of public opinion, but donors find it cheaper to affect these markets than to pay for advertising.Key Facts
- Special interest groups are entering prediction markets.
- Their bets can move the prices in these markets.
- Campaigns interpret price changes as signs of voter support or momentum.
- Journalists use these market prices as predictions for outcomes.
- Donors find it less expensive to influence markets than to run advertising campaigns.
- Influencing markets can yield rewards if the donor’s prediction is correct.
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