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Victoria state budget 2026: state back in black forecasting two back-to-back surpluses

Victoria state budget 2026: state back in black forecasting two back-to-back surpluses

Summary

Victoria’s state budget for 2026-27 shows the government expects a $700 million operating surplus in 2025-26 and a $1 billion surplus the following year. These are the first surpluses since before the pandemic, though the state still faces large cash deficits due to infrastructure spending and rising debt.

Key Facts

  • Victoria recorded a $700 million operating surplus in 2025-26, the first since 2018-19.
  • A $1 billion surplus is forecast for 2026-27, though this is lower than earlier predictions.
  • Operating surplus numbers exclude spending on infrastructure projects like roads, schools, and hospitals.
  • The state is expected to run a cash deficit of about $9.68 billion in 2025-26 due to capital spending.
  • Net debt is projected to reach nearly $166 billion by June 2026 and $193 billion by 2028-29.
  • Debt as a share of the economy is expected to stabilize at around 25%.
  • The budget includes more than $6 billion in funding, such as $750 million for car registration refunds and $1.6 billion for school infrastructure.
  • Health funding includes upgrades to hospitals, increased surgeries for children, and expanded fertility services.
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