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Is the Iranian regime really in a "state of collapse" as Trump claims?

Is the Iranian regime really in a "state of collapse" as Trump claims?

Summary

President Trump says Iran's ruling group is confused and fighting among themselves, which he thinks makes peace talks hard. Experts say Iran’s leadership is changing but not collapsing, with power shifting more to its military group, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Key Facts

  • President Trump claims Iran's leadership is in disorder and "nobody knows who is in charge."
  • Iran’s former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in early U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28.
  • Iran appointed Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, but his condition and role remain unclear.
  • The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a powerful military and political force answering only to the supreme leader.
  • The IRGC controls Iran’s military actions, regional alliances, and internal security efforts.
  • Power in Iran is shifting from the religious leader to the IRGC and a wartime leadership group.
  • Experts say this leadership change is a long-term trend, with the IRGC gaining more influence over politics and business.
  • Analysts find little proof that Iran’s leadership is split or collapsing, despite President Trump’s statements.
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