5 Scenarios for Putin's Ukraine War
Summary
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the war in Ukraine is nearing its end, while fighting continues despite a recent ceasefire. Experts suggest five possible futures, including an unresolved armistice, ongoing conflict, or a Russian-influenced victory.Key Facts
- Putin described the Ukraine war as "coming to an end" after a smaller Victory Day event.
- A recent 72-hour ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine ended with each side accusing the other of violations.
- The main conflict remains over control of the Donbas region and Ukraine's future security.
- One possible outcome is an armistice without peace, similar to the 1953 Korean armistice that left a divided peninsula.
- Another scenario is a "forever war" with ongoing low-level fighting supported by foreign allies for both sides.
- A coercive Russian victory could involve Russia controlling some territory without full conquest of Kyiv.
- External support for Ukraine comes mainly from the U.S. and Europe, while Russia gets backing from countries like China, North Korea, and Iran.
- Experts warn ceasefires without enforcement and monitoring are unlikely to last, increasing risk of renewed war.
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