Xavier Becerra's Chances of Beating Steve Hilton in California: Three Polls
Summary
Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are in a close race in California’s 2026 governor primary, with three recent polls showing them tied at around 20-23% support. Early voting has started, and prediction markets currently favor Becerra to win the governorship.Key Facts
- California uses a "top-two jungle primary" where all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the top two move to the general election.
- Three May polls show Becerra and Hilton tied for first place, each with about 20 to 23% support.
- Other candidates include billionaire Tom Steyer, Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Representative Katie Porter, all polling lower.
- Early voting is underway, with ballots being mailed and returned before the June 2 primary.
- Prediction markets give Becerra about a 50-55% chance to become governor.
- Becerra’s support increased significantly after Democratic candidate Eric Swalwell dropped out amid allegations he denies.
- Polls show voters remain undecided and the race is still developing without a clear leader.
- Two of the polls were commissioned by groups aligned with Mayor Mahan, but all show similar results for the top candidates.
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