Why Social Security COLA Estimates Keep Changing
Summary
Social Security benefits in the U.S. get an annual increase called the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), based on inflation. Early predictions suggest the 2027 increase could be higher than this year’s, due to recent rises in energy, gasoline, and grocery prices.Key Facts
- Over 70 million Americans receive Social Security benefits like retirement, survivor, or disability payments.
- The 2027 COLA is estimated to be between 3.9% and 4.2%, higher than this year’s 2.8% increase.
- COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
- The official COLA is set by comparing average inflation data from July to September each year.
- Inflation recently rose to 3.8% in April, driven by higher energy, fuel, housing, and food costs.
- Fuel prices have increased 54.3% and electricity prices 6.1% year over year.
- Conflicts in the Middle East have raised global oil prices, affecting U.S. gasoline prices.
- A 3.9% COLA would add about $79 per month to the average retired worker’s Social Security payment.
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