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Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño grows

Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño grows

Summary

New weather forecasts show a strong chance that a powerful El Niño will develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This natural warming event could cause global temperatures to reach record highs and lead to serious impacts on weather and people worldwide.

Key Facts

  • Sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific are already about 0.5°C above normal, signaling El Niño’s start.
  • Scientists expect this El Niño to strengthen over the next months and might become one of the strongest on record by autumn.
  • NOAA says there is about a 66% (two-in-three) chance of a strong or very strong El Niño this winter.
  • A strong El Niño means the ocean temperature in a specific area (Niño3.4) is at least 1.5°C above average.
  • Some forecasts suggest temperatures could rise above 2.5°C, which would be historically high.
  • The last very strong El Niño in 2015-2016 caused global weather changes and raised global temperatures.
  • The 1877 El Niño, possibly the strongest ever, caused major droughts, famines, and floods worldwide.
  • El Niño usually increases global average temperatures by about 0.2°C and affects weather patterns globally.
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