Democrats’ Chances of Flipping Florida in the Midterms—Poll
Summary
A recent poll by the Florida Chamber of Commerce shows Republicans leading by single digits in Florida’s upcoming 2026 Senate and governor races. Republican candidates Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds have leads over their Democratic opponents, but Democrats hope to improve their chances if Hispanic and Latino voters shift their support.Key Facts
- The poll surveyed 604 Florida residents from May 1-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
- Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alexander Vindman by 8 points in the Florida Senate race (48% to 40%).
- The poll did not include a matchup between Moody and Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon.
- Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 8 points (47% to 39%) in the Florida governor race.
- Donalds also leads Democrat Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings by 9 points (48% to 39%).
- Florida, which supported President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024, has shifted more conservative in recent elections.
- Democrats hope to compete better if Hispanic and Latino voters return to supporting them.
- Historically, the party of the president tends to lose seats during midterm elections.
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