Stafford byelection tipped to swing towards LNP as danger looms for Steven Miles’ leadership of Queensland Labor
Summary
Voters in the Brisbane seat of Stafford are taking part in a byelection after the death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan. If the Labor party loses the seat to the Liberal National Party (LNP), it could seriously weaken Labor leader Steven Miles’ position and affect the balance of power in Queensland.Key Facts
- The Stafford byelection follows the death of Jimmy Sullivan, who was expelled from the Labor party in 2025.
- Stafford has been mostly held by Labor since 1989 but is now considered a marginal seat with a 5.3% Labor margin.
- Experts predict the LNP candidate Fiona Hammond could win with around 51-52% of the vote after preferences.
- Byelection swings toward sitting governments are rare, so a loss would be significant for Labor.
- A loss in Stafford could threaten Steven Miles’ leadership, with Shannon Fentiman likely to challenge him.
- The Greens did not recommend preferences between Labor or LNP this time, which is unusual.
- One Nation did not put forward a candidate in Stafford, missing a chance to increase their vote share.
- Steven Miles stated the byelection result would not change the leadership or government but acknowledged its importance as a message to the ruling LNP.
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