Below-average hurricane season forecast for 2026 as El Niño set to strengthen
Summary
US weather experts predict the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be less active than usual due to a strengthening El Niño weather pattern. They expect 8 to 14 named storms, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, below the average numbers for the season.Key Facts
- NOAA forecasts a 55% chance of a below-average 2026 hurricane season in the Atlantic.
- Expected storms range from 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or stronger).
- The average season from 1991-2020 had 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- Warmer Atlantic sea temperatures usually increase hurricane activity.
- A strong El Niño is expected to increase upper-level winds that can break apart storms, reducing hurricane numbers.
- Major hurricanes can still happen in below-average seasons and cause serious damage.
- Examples: Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Hurricane Betsy in 1965 were major storms during less active seasons.
- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year.
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