Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Nino
Summary
Meteorologists predict the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be milder than normal because of a developing El Nino, which tends to reduce hurricane activity. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects fewer storms and hurricanes than usual but warns that dangerous storms can still occur.Key Facts
- El Nino is a natural warming of the central Pacific Ocean that changes global weather patterns.
- NOAA forecasts 8 to 14 named storms this season, with 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes and 1 to 3 reaching major hurricane strength.
- A normal season usually has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- Most other forecasts also predict below-average hurricane activity for 2024.
- The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, measuring storm strength and duration, is expected to be about 80% of normal.
- Colorado State University, a leader in hurricane forecasts, predicts the lowest activity since 2015, the last strong El Nino year.
- Despite fewer storms, a single hurricane can still cause serious damage.
- Damage from tropical cyclones has risen globally from about $11 billion per year in the 1980s to nearly $110 billion per year recently, mostly in the Atlantic and surrounding regions.
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