NOAA Predicts Below-Average Hurricane Season: How Other Forecasts Compare
Summary
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes expected. Other forecasts from Colorado State University and AccuWeather also predict a season with fewer or near-average storms, influenced by the development of El Niño, which usually reduces hurricane activity.Key Facts
- NOAA forecasts a 55% chance of a below-average hurricane season in the Atlantic for 2026.
- NOAA expects 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
- An average season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- El Niño, a weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean, tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
- Despite the below-average forecast, NOAA warns that one strong hurricane can still cause major damage.
- Colorado State University predicts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, also noting El Niño’s impact.
- AccuWeather projects 11 to 16 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes, expecting 3 to 5 U.S. hurricane impacts.
- Warmer Atlantic waters and weaker trade winds normally increase storm activity, but El Niño may balance this out.
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