Kamala Harris vs. Gavin Newsom 2028 Presidential Election Chances: New Poll
Summary
A recent poll tested how likely Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom are to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The poll used ranked choice voting and found Harris narrowly ahead of Newsom, but the race is close and many voters are divided among other candidates.Key Facts
- The poll was done by Lake Research Partners with 800 likely Democratic primary voters from May 6-11, 2026.
- Kamala Harris leads Gavin Newsom 52% to 48% in final ranked choice voting results, but this difference is within the margin of error.
- Only 43% of voters chose Harris or Newsom as their first choice, showing many other candidates are also favored initially.
- About 80% of voters ranked Harris or Newsom in their top five choices.
- Ranked choice voting means voters pick several candidates in order of preference, and lower-ranked candidates are eliminated one by one, moving votes to the next preferences.
- Support for ranked choice voting increased from 63% before the exercise to 70% afterward.
- Other candidates like Pete Buttigieg, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mark Kelly, and Josh Shapiro also have support among the top five picks of many voters.
- The poll shows no clear front-runner, reflecting a divided Democratic field after their 2024 election loss.
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