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Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?

Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?

Summary

Due to disruptions in oil supply caused by the US-Israel conflict with Iran and sanctions on Russia, countries like China and India are buying more oil from Brazil. Brazil has increased its oil exports to Asia, especially China and India, as they look for safer sources outside the Middle East.

Key Facts

  • The war involving the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Sanctions on Russia have also limited its oil supply to global markets.
  • China and India have increased their purchases of Brazilian crude oil.
  • Brazil’s oil exports to Asia rose from 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 1.8 million barrels per day in early 2026.
  • Brazil’s oil production grew slightly from 3.77 million barrels per day in 2025 to over 4 million barrels per day in early 2026.
  • Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, now sends more than 60% of its exports to China, while exports to the US have stopped.
  • Higher oil prices are expected to improve Brazil’s trade balance and boost government revenue.
  • Brazil cannot fully replace Middle Eastern oil but is seen as a safer and more reliable supplier amid rising shipping risks through the Gulf.
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