Why James Talarico Has a Better Chance Than Beto O'Rourke to Win Texas
Summary
James Talarico, a Texas Democratic state lawmaker, is currently polling slightly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton for the 2026 Texas statewide race. This suggests Democrats may have a better chance in Texas than in recent years, with Talarico’s poll numbers comparing favorably to Beto O’Rourke’s at the same time before the 2018 election.Key Facts
- James Talarico is leading Ken Paxton by about 1.5 percentage points in polls conducted from January to early May 2024.
- Talarico is a Democrat and a Presbyterian seminarian who won his party’s nomination in March 2024.
- Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination in a primary runoff in May 2024.
- Talarico’s polling position is closer to Paxton than O’Rourke’s was to Cruz at the same point in 2018.
- In 2018, Beto O’Rourke trailed by 7 to 11 points in early polls but closed the gap later, ultimately losing by 2.6 points.
- President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Texas is currently lower than in 2018, which could help Democrats.
- The 2026 Texas race is seen as a test of whether Democrats can win statewide office in Texas for the first time this century.
- Political experts say Talarico has a better chance than any Democrat since the 1990s to win Texas.
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