Scientists Map Out Scenario of Global Population Crash by 2064
Summary
Scientists created a math model that studies how the world’s population has grown over thousands of years and predicts possible future changes. Their research suggests that if Earth reaches a limit on how many people it can support, the global population might drop by half by the year 2064.Key Facts
- Researchers Alessio Zaccone and Kostya Trachenko used a simple math equation to study population growth over 12,000 years.
- The model predicts that a major event like disease or war could halve the world population by 2064 if resources become too limited.
- The study shows population growth may be more sensitive to environmental and social challenges than earlier models suggested.
- Birth rates are falling worldwide, which can lead to population decline and problems like an aging population.
- The United Nations estimates the global population will peak at 10.3 billion by 2080 and then slowly decline.
- The U.S. fertility rate is below the level needed to maintain population, with 1.6 children per woman as of 2023.
- President Trump’s administration introduced policies in early 2025 to encourage higher birth rates, including better access to IVF.
- China’s birth rate also declined for the fourth year in a row in 2025, with births dropping 17% compared to 2024.
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