New Texans, Latino doubts about Trump cloud Paxton's Senate bid
Summary
Texas has gained over 2.5 million new residents since 2020, changing the state's voters and creating uncertainty in the 2026 Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. New residents come from various states and have mixed political views, while Latino voters in Texas show declining support for President Donald Trump, affecting party strategies.Key Facts
- Texas added nearly 400,000 residents in 2025, the most of any U.S. state, bringing the total population to 31.7 million.
- Since 2020, about 2.6 million people have moved to Texas, more than any other state.
- More than two-thirds of new Texans moved from other U.S. states or from abroad.
- New residents include "economic migrants" (job or cost-related movers) and "political refugees" (people leaving liberal states for conservative ones).
- Five of the top 10 fastest-growing U.S. cities since 2020 are in Texas, many with unpredictable voting patterns.
- Latino voters in Texas now disapprove of President Donald Trump at a rate of 67%, according to recent polls.
- In hypothetical matchups, Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by large margins among Latino and independent voters.
- Republicans still hold advantages like strong turnout and suburban support, and no Democrat has won a statewide Texas race since 1994.
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