What to Expect as Hurricane Season Starts: Forecasts, Warnings, and El Niño
Summary
The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, with forecasts predicting fewer storms than usual in 2026 due to a developing El Niño. However, experts warn that even a quieter season can still bring dangerous hurricanes and recommend that people in vulnerable areas prepare accordingly.Key Facts
- NOAA expects 8 to 14 named storms (with winds over 35 mph) in 2026.
- They predict 3 to 6 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (category 3 to 5, winds over 111 mph).
- There is a 55% chance of a below-normal hurricane season, 35% chance of near-normal, and 10% chance of above-normal activity.
- El Niño in the Pacific Ocean usually causes stronger winds high in the atmosphere, which disrupt hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
- Warmer Atlantic ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could still help some storms develop despite El Niño.
- Other forecasters like Colorado State University and AccuWeather also predict below-average storm activity but warn of possible direct U.S. impacts.
- NOAA emphasizes that even fewer storms can be dangerous because one strong hurricane can cause severe damage.
- Rapid intensification of storms is a concern, meaning some hurricanes could become stronger very quickly.
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