Tom Kean Jr.'s Chances of Beating Democrats in New Jersey
Summary
New Jersey Republican Tom Kean Jr. has been absent from Congress for several months due to a personal medical issue, causing his chances of winning re-election in New Jersey’s 7th District to decrease. Recent polls and betting odds now show the race as very close, with Democrats having a stronger chance of winning the seat.Key Facts
- Tom Kean Jr. has missed more than 100 votes in Congress since his last public appearance on March 5.
- Kean cited a personal medical issue as the reason for his absence and expects to return soon.
- Before his absence, Kean had a narrow lead in election forecasts; now the race is considered a toss-up.
- Prediction markets give Democrats about a 75-78% chance to win the seat, with Republicans around 14-22%.
- Four Democrats are competing in the primary to challenge Kean in the general election.
- An internal poll shows Democratic candidate Tina Shah leading Kean by a small margin.
- The Cook Political Report moved this district’s race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up."
- Kean is running unopposed in the Republican primary.
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