Iran and the US both think they are winning the war. The truth is they are both losing | Sanam Vakil
Summary
The ceasefire between the US and Iran, which began on April 8, is facing new clashes with attacks and counterattacks in the Middle East. Both countries believe they have the upper hand, but ongoing violence and political challenges mean neither side is truly winning.Key Facts
- The ceasefire started on April 8 but recent weeks saw more US strikes on Iran and Iranian actions in Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Israel has also increased military activity in Lebanon during this period.
- Four main obstacles to peace include lack of trust, no direct talks, differing goals, and domestic politics in both countries.
- Iran doubts that President Trump will keep any deal and fears demands will keep increasing over time.
- There has been no direct communication since April between US and Iranian leaders, only indirect talks through other countries.
- Iran wants clear promises about lifting sanctions and protecting its economy before agreeing to terms.
- The US wants a quick deal it can present as a win, without long, detailed agreements.
- Politically, any deal is unpopular in Washington and Tehran, making it harder to reach agreement.
- Both countries think they are winning, but the ongoing conflict harms their economies and political goals.
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