Republicans' Chances of Losing Control of House: 3 Election Forecasts
Summary
Three election forecasters updated their predictions for the upcoming midterm elections, showing a close race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. While Republicans currently have a narrow majority, Democrats could win the House if they secure enough toss-up districts in the November election.Key Facts
- Republicans hold a slim 217-212 majority in the House, with one independent and five vacant seats.
- Democrats have been performing well in recent special elections.
- President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are declining, which Democrats see as a positive sign.
- The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all forecast a tight contest for the House.
- Each forecaster lists multiple districts as “toss-up,” meaning the outcome is uncertain.
- Democrats need to win most toss-up seats to gain the 218 seats needed for a majority.
- Republicans are rated to hold more “safe” and “likely” seats than Democrats.
- Key toss-up districts include areas in Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia.
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