Republicans' Chances of Losing the Senate as Two Seats Become Toss-ups
Summary
New Senate ratings show that Ohio and Alaska are now seen as competitive states, while North Carolina leans more toward Democrats. Republicans currently control the Senate 53–47, and they are slightly favored to keep control in the 2026 midterm elections.Key Facts
- Ohio and Alaska changed from leaning Republican to toss-up states.
- North Carolina shifted from toss-up to leaning Democratic.
- Republicans hold 53 Senate seats; Democrats hold 47.
- Democrats need to gain four seats to take control of the Senate.
- Republicans can keep control by winning just one toss-up race.
- Four key races are considered toss-ups: Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and Michigan.
- Prediction markets give Republicans about a 56% chance to keep the Senate.
- Control of the Senate will affect the legislative agenda during President Donald Trump’s final years.
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