Sir John Curtice: Burnham's win represents remarkable personal success for him
Summary
Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, increasing Labour's share of the vote by 10 points even though the party is low in national polls. His personal popularity, tactical voting, and weak performances by other parties helped him succeed.Key Facts
- Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election, boosting Labour’s vote share from 45% in 2024 to 55%.
- Labour’s national polling remains around 19%, showing no big recent increase.
- Burnham persuaded many 2024 Labour voters to support him again; about 80% of those voters backed him.
- Other parties like the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens together won only 3% of the Makerfield vote.
- The Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, increased support nationally but barely improved in Makerfield.
- A new party called Restore Britain, which supports tougher migration policies, gained 7% of the vote in Makerfield.
- Some voters may have voted tactically to prevent the Reform party from winning.
- The result is seen as a personal success for Burnham, distinct from overall Labour party trends.
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