Heathrow third runway GDP yield may be 90% less than original estimate
Summary
Government analysis shows that building a third runway at Heathrow Airport could increase the UK’s GDP by only 0.05%, much less than earlier estimates of about 0.5%. The costs related to social, environmental, and economic impacts might outweigh the benefits, potentially setting the UK back by up to £62.5 billion.Key Facts
- The Department for Transport (DfT) estimates the third runway could boost GDP by up to 0.05% by 2056.
- This figure is about 90% lower than previous government estimates of around 0.5% GDP growth.
- The net present value (overall social value) of the project is between -£23.4 billion and -£62.5 billion, meaning the costs exceed the benefits.
- Positive benefits include lower airfares and wider economic gains estimated between £29 billion and £42.4 billion.
- The social and environmental costs are estimated between £58 billion and £82 billion.
- Profits at other airports and airlines are expected to fall by approximately £25 billion due to the expansion.
- Heathrow’s proposed runway would add about 276,000 extra flights a year, cost around £33 billion, and affect local communities by requiring demolition of about 800 homes.
- A health impact assessment warns the expansion could harm the health and wellbeing of up to 3 million people living nearby and impact access to housing, education, healthcare, and the environment.
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