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Trade is the new fiscal risk

Trade is the new fiscal risk

Summary

A court ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing certain tariffs, calling them illegal but allowing them to stay temporarily while appeals are filed. These tariffs have been collecting significant revenue, which has positively impacted the U.S. fiscal outlook by reducing deficits. If the tariffs are rolled back, it could affect the economy and financial markets, leading to higher interest rates.

Key Facts

  • A court ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority with some tariffs.
  • The tariffs will remain temporarily while the government appeals.
  • The tariffs cover 70% of imports, over $2 trillion worth of goods.
  • The tariffs have helped reduce the U.S. deficit by generating significant revenue.
  • The government collected $135 billion in tariffs by July, up from $63 billion in the same period last year.
  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates the tariffs could lower deficits by $4 trillion over ten years.
  • Bond markets reacted to the ruling by adjusting long-term interest rates upward.
  • The Trump administration plans to appeal to the Supreme Court.

Source Information