Will the UK's plan for defence help it hit Nato's spending target?
Summary
The UK government has released its Defence Investment Plan (DIP), aiming to increase defence spending towards targets set by NATO. The plan projects defence expenditure rising to 2.7% of the UK’s GDP by 2027-28, with an ambition to reach 3% in the next parliament and NATO’s 3.5% target by 2035.Key Facts
- The UK’s Ministry of Defence budget for 2026-27 is £68.3 billion.
- NATO-qualifying defence spending, which includes extra military-related costs, is estimated at £70 billion for 2025, or 2.4% of GDP.
- Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer committed to raise NATO-qualifying defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027.
- Security and intelligence agency activities will now count as NATO-qualifying spending, raising the 2027 target to 2.6% of GDP.
- The government aims to increase defence spending to 3% of GDP in the next parliament (post-2027).
- NATO members, including the UK, agreed at a 2025 summit to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035, with 3.5% dedicated to NATO qualifying “core defence.”
- The Defence Investment Plan predicts spending at 2.7% of GDP by 2027-28 and stable through 2030, which may not align with hitting the 3% target by then.
- Former Defence Secretary John Healey criticized the plan for not committing to a 3% target by 2030 and called for a clear timeline and plan to meet NATO’s 3.5% goal by 2035.
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