Talarico's Chances of Beating Paxton As He Scores Major Fundraising Win
Summary
Texas State Representative James Talarico has raised $30 million in three months for the 2026 Senate race, more than three times the $9 million raised by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Polls show the race is very close, with no clear leader, and the election is expected to be competitive in November.Key Facts
- James Talarico raised $30 million between April and June 2026.
- Ken Paxton raised about $9 million in the same period.
- Talarico’s fundraising is a record for a U.S. Senate candidate in Texas for the second quarter of an election year.
- Recent polls show a tight race, with some surveys giving Talarico a small lead and others showing Paxton ahead.
- An A2 Insights poll showed Talarico at 48.4% and Paxton at 46.1%.
- A SoCal Strategies poll showed Paxton leading with 49% over Talarico’s 47%.
- Prediction markets give Paxton about a 61% chance to win and Talarico about 41%.
- Texas has historically been Republican but has become more competitive due to demographic and political changes.
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