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Will the July inflation report impact mortgage interest rates?

Will the July inflation report impact mortgage interest rates?

Summary

Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. have been changing a lot recently, influenced by rising inflation and global events like the war with Iran. The upcoming July inflation report, to be released on July 14, could affect whether mortgage rates go up or down, depending on how inflation changed in June.

Key Facts

  • Mortgage rates dropped to around 5.75% for a 30-year loan by early March 2025 but have since risen to about 6.50% as of July 9, 2025.
  • Rising inflation and higher oil prices linked to the war with Iran have pushed mortgage rates upward.
  • The July inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will reveal the inflation level for June and is expected on July 14, 2025.
  • If inflation rises, the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates later this year or in 2026, which could increase mortgage rates further.
  • A small drop or stabilization in inflation could cause mortgage rates to hold steady or decline slightly in the mid-6% range.
  • Mortgage lenders respond differently to inflation changes, so rates can vary between lenders, making it important for borrowers to shop around.
  • Mortgage interest rates change daily, especially after major financial reports, so timing can affect the rate a borrower may get.
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