Midterm Races Shift Toward Democrats in Arizona, Ohio, Maine and New Mexico
Summary
New ratings and polling show Democrats gaining ground in governor races in Arizona, Ohio, Maine, and New Mexico ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. These changes could affect which party controls the states and their ability to set policies.Key Facts
- Arizona’s Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs by about 5 to 7 points in polls.
- Prediction markets give Democrats a 77% to 81% chance to win in Arizona.
- Ohio’s governor race is very close, with polls showing a tie or a small lead for Democrat Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.
- Prediction markets slightly favor Republicans to keep Ohio’s governorship.
- In Maine, Democratic candidates lead in polls of a multi-candidate race, with markets favoring a Democratic win.
- In New Mexico, Democrat Deb Haaland leads primary polls and is favored to win the general election.
- These gubernatorial races affect control of states, which influences laws on voting, healthcare, and taxes.
- The 2026 midterms could shift state political power after many years of Republican control in legislatures.
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