Can mortgage rates fall without another Fed rate cut? Here's what experts think
Summary
Mortgage rates can change even without the Federal Reserve lowering its main interest rate. Experts say mortgage rates depend more on the 10-year Treasury yield and inflation than on direct Fed rate cuts.Key Facts
- Mortgage rates were about 6.5% in mid-July 2026 after fluctuating earlier in the year.
- The Federal Reserve has not changed its rates in 2026 and may keep them steady or raise them.
- Mortgage rates generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects market expectations for inflation and Fed policy.
- Inflation is currently high at 4.2%, above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping mortgage rates elevated.
- Energy prices rose 23.5% due to conflicts affecting fuel costs, contributing to inflation.
- Mortgage-backed securities purchases by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped lower mortgage rates temporarily.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed is unlikely to cut rates this year.
- Changes in consumer costs like gasoline prices can influence mortgage rates to move up or down.
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