China could supply EV manufacturing boom with recycled EVs
Summary
A study from Nanjing University shows that China can meet much of the material demand for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing by recycling old EVs. The researchers modeled material supply and demand in China from 2010 to 2050 and found recycling rates could rise to cover a large part of the needed materials, despite changes in battery and motor technologies over time.Key Facts
- The study covers materials important for EV batteries and motors, including lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, and rare-earth elements.
- China aims to increase battery material recycling rates from 40% to at least 98% by 2030.
- EV sales in China are expected to rise to 60% of new vehicle sales by 2030 and continue growing through 2050.
- Recycling supply grows as more EVs reach end-of-life, but battery replacement during vehicle use also adds to recycling material.
- Some metals like cobalt may see demand drop due to shifts to low-cobalt batteries, leading to recycled supply exceeding demand.
- Nickel and manganese demand may increase, keeping recycling’s share of supply relatively steady.
- Technological changes in motor design can affect which materials are needed and how much recycling can supply.
- The study modeled four scenarios with different speeds and types of technology changes impacting material demand and recycling potential.
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