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Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive

Sir John Curtice: The "Burnham bounce" is real but it's not massive

Summary

Labour party in the UK has gained more support after Andy Burnham became its leader, showing a rise in polls and winning a recent mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester. However, the Reform party remains close behind in polls despite some recent difficulties, so Labour’s lead is not very strong yet.

Key Facts

  • Labour’s poll ratings increased from 19% to the mid-20s after Andy Burnham became leader.
  • Labour won the Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election with 47% of first preference votes.
  • Labour’s current poll rating is still lower than the 35% they got in the 2024 general election.
  • Other new UK prime ministers have also seen a "bounce" in support after taking office.
  • Reform party’s poll rating dropped from 27% to 24% after leader Nigel Farage announced his resignation and a new by-election.
  • Farage faces questions about some of the funding the Reform party received.
  • Labour’s holdings in the polls remain narrow compared to Reform despite their recent win.
  • Burnham has ruled out calling an early general election due to the close competition.
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