Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction markets"
Summary
Several U.S. senators have asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) about plans to stop online markets where people can bet on wildfires. These senators are concerned that such betting could encourage people to start fires and make light of community suffering.Key Facts
- A group of senators from Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire wrote a letter to the CFTC about wildfire betting markets.
- Polymarket allowed bets in January 2025 on wildfires in Los Angeles, and another site takes simulated bets on California wildfires.
- The senators worry betting on wildfires could lead to arson for profit and involve unsafe insider actions.
- Wildfires are currently burning in parts of the Pacific Northwest, with a suspect arrested for arson in Spokane, Washington.
- Kalshi, a major prediction market, does not allow wildfire betting because it creates wrong incentives.
- Polymarket says it does not profit from wildfire outcomes and provides information, though it denies having current wildfire markets.
- Fire experts and wildland firefighters oppose these betting markets, saying they encourage harmful behavior and exploit tragedy.
- The CFTC has not responded yet to requests for comment on the issue.
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