Democrats Within Striking Distance of Wresting Iowa From GOP Control—Poll
Summary
New polls show that Democrats have a good chance to win key elections in Iowa this year. Democrat Rob Sand leads in the governor’s race, while Republican Ashley Hinson has a small lead in the Senate race.Key Facts
- A recent Emerson College poll surveyed 712 likely Iowa voters in early August 2024.
- Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 5 points in the governor’s race (48% to 43%).
- Sand is popular with 51% viewing him favorably, while 31% view him unfavorably.
- In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek by about 2.5 points (47.5% to 45%).
- Polls from The New York Times, Siena University, and Fox News show mixed results but confirm a competitive race.
- Iowa supported President Donald Trump in recent elections but was previously a Democratic state in 2008 and 2012.
- The governor’s seat last held by a Democrat was won in 2006, and the Senate seat last Democratic win was in 2008.
- Prediction markets give Sand a 63-68% chance to win the governor’s race, while Hinson has a 56-61% chance to keep the Senate seat.
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