Tracking extreme heat by the hour makes climate change seem even worse
Summary
A new study analyzed extreme heat by looking at hourly temperatures rather than daily highs and lows. It found that people are experiencing more hot hours each summer, and this is expected to increase significantly as the planet warms due to greenhouse gas emissions.Key Facts
- The study compared temperatures hour-by-hour, defining extreme heat as temperatures above the 90th percentile for that hour between 1981 and 2010.
- On average, people experienced about 270 hours of extreme heat each summer over the past 40 years.
- The number of extreme heat hours is increasing by 62 hours every decade.
- Future climate models predict the number of hot hours could triple by the late 21st century with medium emissions and increase 4.5 times with high emissions.
- For every 0.5°C (about 1°F) rise in global temperature, extreme hot hours increase by roughly 200 per summer.
- The tropics are expected to see the largest increase in hot hours due to more variable temperatures.
- Nighttime hot hours are increasing faster than daytime hot hours, leading to less relief from the heat.
- People born in 2023 will experience about 1.4 to 1.8 times more hot hours in their lifetime compared to those born in 1981, especially in low-income countries.
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