Fourth favourites for relegation - can Sunderland defy odds again?
Summary
Sunderland surprised many by finishing seventh in the 2025-26 Premier League season after being promoted. Despite this success, they are again considered likely to be relegated due to their weak stats, the challenge of following up a strong first season, and managing both league and European games.Key Facts
- Sunderland was promoted to the Premier League in May 2025, ending an eight-year absence.
- They finished seventh in the 2025-26 season, qualifying for European competition for the first time since 1973.
- Their expected goals (xG) statistics were among the worst, suggesting their good results were unusual.
- Sunderland overperformed their xG by scoring more goals and conceding fewer than expected.
- The team lost six players during the Africa Cup of Nations, affecting their performance in December and January.
- Without the African tournament this season, Sunderland may avoid a mid-season performance drop.
- "Second-season syndrome" is the idea that promoted teams often do worse in their second season, but historically only about 21% of such teams are relegated.
- Some promoted teams with strong first seasons, like Ipswich in 2000-01, have been relegated the following year.
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