Trump's Approval Rating Is Bad for Republicans. Democrats May Still Lose
Summary
President Donald Trump's approval rating is in the high 30s to low 40s, and Democrats have led generic congressional polls by about 6 to 7 points for months. Despite this, factors like new voting district maps favoring Republicans, a recent Supreme Court ruling benefiting their Senate fundraising, and a Senate race map tilted toward Republicans could help the GOP keep control in the November elections.Key Facts
- President Trump’s approval rating is around 38-42%.
- Democrats have had a 6-7 point lead in generic congressional ballot polls for months.
- Historically, the party in the White House tends to lose about 22 House seats in midterm elections.
- New congressional district maps in states like Texas and Florida favor Republicans by about 12-14 seats nationally.
- A recent Supreme Court ruling removed limits on coordinated spending between party committees and candidates, helping the Republican Senate campaign.
- Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to gain control, with only the North Carolina race currently favoring them.
- Some Republican strategists expect Republicans to lose the House but by fewer seats than predicted.
- Senate races in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Michigan, Texas, and Kansas are seen as key battlegrounds.
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