Why oil markets are ignoring Trump's "truths"
Summary
Oil price changes caused by President Trump's social media posts about the Iran war have become smaller over time. At first, these posts affected oil prices a lot, but now the market is less influenced because traders rely more on real-world information.Key Facts
- An analysis tracked 269 posts by President Trump about Iran or the Strait of Hormuz from Feb. 28 to Aug. 19.
- Initially, oil prices changed by about 0.73% shortly after these posts appeared, nearly four times the usual short-term change.
- Over time, the influence of these posts on oil prices has decreased.
- Traders now pay more attention to actual events on the ground than to social media posts.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway for oil transport, making it important to global oil supply.
- President Trump’s Truth Social platform charges Wall Street firms up to $1.2 million annually for early access to posts.
- This paid service is currently involved in legal challenges.
- The reduced impact of Trump’s posts on oil prices affects political debates, especially energy prices discussed in the upcoming midterm elections.
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