Stormy autumn, cold winter - how might El Niño affect the UK weather?
Summary
A strong El Niño is developing over the Pacific Ocean and is expected to affect weather worldwide, including the UK. The UK may see more rain and storms during autumn and early winter 2026, raising concerns about flooding and strong winds.Key Facts
- El Niño is a natural weather pattern that starts in the Pacific Ocean and impacts global weather.
- It is predicted to be the strongest El Niño in modern records by the end of 2026.
- The UK could experience wetter and stormier weather in autumn and early winter, especially November and December.
- Past strong El Niños have caused significant flooding and storms in the UK, such as in the winter of 2015-2016.
- While El Niño can sometimes be linked to cold winters in the UK, the connection is not strong or consistent.
- El Niño tends to raise global temperatures slightly, increasing the chance of heatwaves worldwide.
- UK climate experts say that long-term global warming has a bigger impact on UK temperatures than El Niño.
- It remains uncertain what the UK summer of 2027 will be like because El Niño effects vary by location.
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