The RSF’s defeat will not end Sudan’s war but merely fragment it
Summary
Sudan’s army has recently regained key areas and weakened the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central parts of the country. However, the RSF remains strong in other regions, and ongoing fighting shows that even if the RSF is defeated, Sudan’s war may split into smaller conflicts instead of ending.Key Facts
- The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) retook important towns along the Export Road connecting the Nile valley to western Sudan.
- The RSF and allies regained control of towns in Blue Nile state, launching attacks from Ethiopia.
- RSF has conducted drone attacks on army-controlled cities, showing its wide reach beyond Darfur.
- The SAF leads a coalition including Darfuri armed groups who signed the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement but retain some military independence.
- The army has struggled to fully integrate these allied groups into its command structure.
- The RSF is fracturing as key commanders defect, taking fighters and equipment with them, influenced by tribal issues and external payments.
- Some fighters, like Abu Aqla Keikel, have switched sides multiple times, showing fluid loyalties.
- The conflict’s complexity suggests a military win over the RSF may cause more divided and prolonged violence rather than peace.
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